Just as the fittest teammates of an escaped cyclist can take turns at the front of the peloton to slow down the speed of the group, the fittest virus variants can come to the forefront of the viral landscape to lower the impact of viral transmission.
We see that the current SARS-CoV-2 subvariants differ from each other by subtle differences, often involving just a single mutation. However, the higher infectiousness conferred by these variants is largely negated by increased adsorption of the progeny virus to dendritic cells (DCs) patrolling the mucosa of the upper respiratory tract (URT; see fig. 1). Consequently, the increased fitness of the virus is not sufficient to compensate for its 'neutralization' by the URT-patrolling DCs, resulting in decreased inter-host transmission. The increased adsorption of progeny virus to migratory DCs depletes the local concentration of virulence-inhibiting non-neutralizing antibodies, thereby promoting viral trans infection of susceptible tissue cells by DC-tethered virions outside the URT. Since this increased trans infection also occurs in the gastrointestinal tract, and potentially in the urogenital tract , the emergence of a new, more infectious variant can lead to increased viral load in wastewater (as measured by PCR; see fig. 2). An increase in wastewater viral activity, therefore, does no longer indicate an increase in inter-host transmission!
Finally, it seems likely that the more the efficiency of inter-host transmission is compromised, the faster the new, fitter 'riders' will take over the front of the peloton to decelerate the pace at which the peloton pursues their breakaway teammate1 (i.e., the faster the proportion of new more infectious subvariants – as determined based on COVID-19 (C-19) wastewater data- will grow): see figs. 3 and 4, respectively.
This strategy of coordinated collaboration rapidly diminishes the chances of the peloton catching up with the rider who escaped from the group unless a fit rider from another team takes the lead and spectacularly increases the speed of the peloton. Similarly, the survival of the virus is at stake unless another Coronavirus (i.e., HIVICRON) suddenly dominates the viral landscape (in highly C-19 vaccinated populations) and dramatically increases viral intra-host transmission, a phenomenon known to enhance viral virulence...
1 To help a teammate and slow down the peloton when other teams are trying to close the gap, cyclists can move to the front of the peloton, set a steady but moderate pace. This will prevent other teams from taking the lead and increasing the speed. In other words, their taking turns becomes less efficient in terms of increasing the speed of the peloton.
Geert Vanden Bossche received his DVM from the University of Ghent, Belgium, and his PhD degree in Virology from the University of Hohenheim, Germany. He held adjunct faculty appointments at universities in Belgium and Germany. After his career in Academia, Geert joined several vaccine companies (GSK Biologicals, Novartis Vaccines, Solvay Biologicals) to serve various roles in vaccine R&D as well as in late vaccine development.
Geert then moved on to join the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation’s Global Health Discovery team in Seattle (USA) as Senior Program Officer; he then worked with the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI) in Geneva as Senior Ebola Program Manager. At GAVI he tracked efforts to develop an Ebola vaccine. He also represented GAVI in fora with other partners, including WHO, to review progress on the fight against Ebola and to build plans for global pandemic preparedness.
Back in 2015, Geert scrutinized and questioned the safety of the Ebola vaccine that was used in ring vaccination trials conducted by WHO in Guinea. His critical scientific analysis and report on the data published by WHO in the Lancet in 2015 was sent to all international health and regulatory authorities involved in the Ebola vaccination program. After working for GAVI, Geert joined the German Center for Infection Research in Cologne as Head of the Vaccine Development Office. He is at present primarily serving as a Biotech / Vaccine consultant while also conducting his own research on Natural Killer cell-based vaccines.
Email: info@voiceforscienceandsolidarity.org
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