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Constraintin One, Expansion in Another: Metastability and the Return of the Seasonals
Feb 28, 2026
Recent CDC data showing record PCR positivityfor endemic (non-SARS) human coronaviruses (OC43, HKU1, NL63, 229E) may reflectmore than simple seasonal fluctuation. These seasonal coronaviruses haveco-circulated with SARS-CoV-2 f(SC-2) or years but their current elevatedactivity may reflect a broader reshaping of the respiratory virus ecosystem ina population with widespread-though imperfect-adaptive immunity against SC-2.As a result, infections in highly C-19-vaccinated countries are increasingly confinedto the upper respiratory tract and often asymptomatic, suggesting that viralreplication is being constrained despite ongoing transmissibility. Under suchconditions, systemic immune perturbation and interferon-mediated viralinterference may be reduced compared to earlier pandemic waves. The resultingecological space could allow seasonal coronaviruses to expand more readily. So,with more room at the inn seasonal coronaviruses slip back in!
While this observation does not constitute direct evidence of an imminentreplacement of SC-2 by a more virulent coronavirus (‘Hi-Vi-Cron’) displacingSC-2, it is compatible with the notion that the viral landscape is increasinglyconstrained by (suboptimal) population-level immune pressure (i.e., manifestedby recombination, mutational convergence, and constrained dominance patterns).In that sense, enhanced circulation of non-SARS coronaviruses (and Flu virus?)may act as a sentinel signal of an imminent phase transition of SC-2 ratherthan a stable endemic equilibrium.
Geert Vanden Bossche received his DVM from the University of Ghent, Belgium, and his PhD degree in Virology from the University of Hohenheim, Germany. He held adjunct faculty appointments at universities in Belgium and Germany. After his career in Academia, Geert joined several vaccine companies (GSK Biologicals, Novartis Vaccines, Solvay Biologicals) to serve various roles in vaccine R&D as well as in late vaccine development.
Geert then moved on to join the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation’s Global Health Discovery team in Seattle (USA) as Senior Program Officer; he then worked with the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI) in Geneva as Senior Ebola Program Manager. At GAVI he tracked efforts to develop an Ebola vaccine. He also represented GAVI in fora with other partners, including WHO, to review progress on the fight against Ebola and to build plans for global pandemic preparedness.
Back in 2015, Geert scrutinized and questioned the safety of the Ebola vaccine that was used in ring vaccination trials conducted by WHO in Guinea. His critical scientific analysis and report on the data published by WHO in the Lancet in 2015 was sent to all international health and regulatory authorities involved in the Ebola vaccination program. After working for GAVI, Geert joined the German Center for Infection Research in Cologne as Head of the Vaccine Development Office. He is at present primarily serving as a Biotech / Vaccine consultant while also conducting his own research on Natural Killer cell-based vaccines.
Email: info@voiceforscienceandsolidarity.org
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