April 10, 2024

Society in highly C-19 vaccinated countries will be caught off guard!

I've learned that the virus had to slow down its spread and is now awaiting rising temperatures to be able to select a highly virulent lineage!

With each new wave of vaccine breakthrough infections, viral transmission slows down as a result of immune refocusing. The delayed emergence of a Coronavirus lineage capable of causing 'vaccine breakthrough trans infections' facilitates prolonged viral spread, thereby fostering the training of innate immunity in the unvaccinated portion of highly Covid-19 (C-19) vaccinated populations.

I have extensively reported about why and how immune refocusing caused a substantial delay in the timeline I initially projected for the evolution of more infectious SARS-CoV-2 variants towards increased  virulence in highly C-19 vaccinated populations. As successive immune refocusing events occur—transitioning from neutralizing antibodies (Abs) to infection-inhibiting Abs, and then to cellular productivity-inhibiting cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) responses—viral transmission is delayed, providing additional time for the unvaccinated segment of the population to train their cell-mediated innate immunity (via epigenetic reprogramming of Natural Killer cells, which effectively target and eliminate pathologically altered host cells at an early stage of infection).

However, with each subsequent immune refocusing event, immune control over viral transmission weakens (see figure attached below). Consequently, the immune pressure on viral transmissibility is now escalating, favoring the propagation of more transmissible variants and their subvariants, manifested in the form of the JN.1 quasispecies (

Higher temperatures will further contribute to increasing the pressure on viral transmission, further facilitating the diversification of the JN.1 quasispecies. This will create a wider array of subvariants, serving as fertile ground for the selection of a new, highly virulent Coronavirus (CoV) strain, especially as the pressure on viral transmission transitions to pressure on viral trans infectiousness. There is little doubt, therefore, that the rising temperatures in the coming months will spur the emergence of a new CoV lineage capable of causing enhanced severe disease in highly C-19 vaccinated populations. Hence, contrary to expectations of a fall or winter occurrence, this phenomenon is likely to unfold pretty soon as temperatures begin to significantly rise!

Society in highly C-19 vaccinated countries will be caught off guard!

Fig.: A progressively delayed and weakened control of viral transmission enhances the training of CMII in the
        unvaccinated and promotes the selection of a new, highly virulent CoV strain in the C-19 vaccinated
        individuals. This process will enable the eventual elimination of the virus from the population.

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Geert Vanden Bossche received his DVM from the University of Ghent, Belgium, and his PhD degree in Virology from the University of Hohenheim, Germany. He held adjunct faculty appointments at universities in Belgium and Germany. After his career in Academia, Geert joined several vaccine companies (GSK Biologicals, Novartis Vaccines, Solvay Biologicals) to serve various roles in vaccine R&D as well as in late vaccine development.

Geert then moved on to join the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation’s Global Health Discovery team in Seattle (USA) as Senior Program Officer; he then worked with the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI) in Geneva as Senior Ebola Program Manager. At GAVI he tracked efforts to develop an Ebola vaccine. He also represented GAVI in fora with other partners, including WHO, to review progress on the fight against Ebola and to build plans for global pandemic preparedness.

Back in 2015, Geert scrutinized and questioned the safety of the Ebola vaccine that was used in ring vaccination trials conducted by WHO in Guinea. His critical scientific analysis and report on the data published by WHO in the Lancet in 2015 was sent to all international health and regulatory authorities involved in the Ebola vaccination program. After working for GAVI, Geert joined the German Center for Infection Research in Cologne as Head of the Vaccine Development Office. He is at present primarily serving as a Biotech / Vaccine consultant while also conducting his own research on Natural Killer cell-based vaccines.


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