Author: G. Vanden Bossche, DVM, PhD May 5th, 2026
When Experts Disagree, Something Bigger Is Being Missed
If you read the recent article (link) or you’re one of the very few folks who still follows the news about the COVID-19 (C-19) pandemic, you’ll notice something strange:
Top scientists cannot agree on what’s happening with Covid. Some say the virus is becoming harmless–just another cold. Others say we are simply better protected because almost everyone now has immunity.
So which is it?
The uncomfortable answer may be: neither explanation tells the full story.
The Problem with Simple Explanations
Most experts look at the data and try to fit it into a clear storyline.
But real-world data is messy. It doesn’t follow a straight line.
When you look closely, you see:
In other words: there are too many observations that don’t fit one simple explanation
Seeing Only What Fits
Here’s the key issue:
Scientists often focus on the data that fits their theory and ignore what doesn’t.
It’s like drawing a straight line through a cloud of dots.
You can always find some points that fit your line.
But that doesn’t mean your line explains the whole picture.
And if different people draw different lines, you end up with conflicting ‘truths.’
That’s exactly what we’re seeing now.
This Is Not a Simple System
An immune escape pandemic is not just about a virus.
It’s about:
All of these things interact. That makes it a complex system, not a simple one. And complex systems don’t behave in straight lines.
Why the Mantra ‘Immunity = Protection’ Is Too Simple
A common belief today is:
‘We all have immunity, so we’re safe.’ But immunity is not the same as protection.
The virus keeps changing. The adaptive immune system keeps reacting.
But often, it reacts to what the virus used to look like, not what it is now.
So instead of stopping the virus, the collective immune response in highly C-19-vaccinated
populations is just chasing a moving target.
The Illusion of Stability
Today, things look calmer:
That sounds like good news. But there is another way to see it. What if the system in highly C-19-vaccinated populations is not stable…but just stuck?
A System Under Strain
Imagine a machine that keeps running, but only because it’s working harder and harder.
Or a material that looks fine–until it suddenly cracks.
This is called a metastable state:
And when such systems change, they don’t change gradually. They change suddenly.
Why Experts Disagree
This is why scientists don’t agree. They are not stupid. They are just looking at a complex system through simplified models. However, simplified models are not a good match for analysing complex phenomena such as an immune escape pandemic occurring in highly C-19-vaccinated populations. That’s why I tend to call them ‘simplistic.’
Hence, some see ‘less danger’ while others see ‘more immunity.’
But both may be missing the deeper picture: a system that is not resolving, but evolving under (immune) pressure.
The Real Risk
The biggest mistake would be to think:
‘This is over. We’ve reached a stable situation.’
Because if this is a metastable system, then what looks like calm today could be the calm before a major shift.
Final Thought
The real question is not: ‘Is the virus getting weaker?’ or ‘Are we better protected?’
The real question is: Are we misunderstanding the system itself?
Because if we are, then the biggest risk is not the virus alone–but the way we misinterpret what we see.
Geert Vanden Bossche received his DVM from the University of Ghent, Belgium, and his PhD degree in Virology from the University of Hohenheim, Germany. He held adjunct faculty appointments at universities in Belgium and Germany. After his career in Academia, Geert joined several vaccine companies (GSK Biologicals, Novartis Vaccines, Solvay Biologicals) to serve various roles in vaccine R&D as well as in late vaccine development.
Geert then moved on to join the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation’s Global Health Discovery team in Seattle (USA) as Senior Program Officer; he then worked with the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI) in Geneva as Senior Ebola Program Manager. At GAVI he tracked efforts to develop an Ebola vaccine. He also represented GAVI in fora with other partners, including WHO, to review progress on the fight against Ebola and to build plans for global pandemic preparedness.
Back in 2015, Geert scrutinized and questioned the safety of the Ebola vaccine that was used in ring vaccination trials conducted by WHO in Guinea. His critical scientific analysis and report on the data published by WHO in the Lancet in 2015 was sent to all international health and regulatory authorities involved in the Ebola vaccination program. After working for GAVI, Geert joined the German Center for Infection Research in Cologne as Head of the Vaccine Development Office. He is at present primarily serving as a Biotech / Vaccine consultant while also conducting his own research on Natural Killer cell-based vaccines.
Email: info@voiceforscienceandsolidarity.org
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