The above graph was kindly posted on X (formerly known as 'Twitter') yesterday by Yunlong Richard Cao.
As shown in this graph, the descendants of BA2.86/JN.1 do indeed have a transmission advantage over JN.1. However, they are increasingly finding it difficult to gain ground on JN.1, as evidenced by the decreasing exponential growth of recently emerged variants. Due to the persistent dominance of JN.1, virus transmission occurs too slowly, or in other words, the immune pressure from highly C-19 vaccinated populations on virus transmission remains too high. The only possibility I see for the virus to break through this pressure is a sudden and drastic change in the glycosylation profile of the spike protein. This change will be of such a nature that it enables the virus to overcome the inhibition of virus virulence by non-neutralizing antibodies. In this way, the virus will be able to spread and replicate fully, not only from one individual to another, but especially within the same vaccinated person.
Translation in Dutch:
Bovenstaande grafiek werd gisteren gepost op X (voorheen bekend als 'Twitter') door Yunlong Richard Cao.
Zoals blijkt uit deze grafiek, hebben de afstammelingen van BA2.86/JN.1 wel degelijk een transmissievoordeel ten opzichte van JN.1. Ze kunnen echter steeds moeilijker terrein winnen op JN.1, zoals blijkt uit de afnemende exponentiële groei van recentelijk opgedoken varianten. Door de aanhoudende dominantie van JN.1 verloopt de virusoverdracht te traag, of anders gezegd, blijft de immuundruk van hooggevaccineerde populaties op de virustransmissie te hoog. De enige mogelijkheid die ik zie voor het virus om deze druk te doorbreken, is een plotselinge en drastische verandering in het glycosylatieprofiel van het spike-eiwit. Deze verandering zal van die aard zijn dat het virus in staat is om de remming van de virusvirulentie door de niet-neutraliserende antilichamen te doorbreken. Op die manier zal het virus zich volledig kunnen verspreiden en vermeerderen, niet alleen van het ene individu naar het andere, maar vooral ook binnen één en dezelfde gevaccineerde persoon.
Geert Vanden Bossche received his DVM from the University of Ghent, Belgium, and his PhD degree in Virology from the University of Hohenheim, Germany. He held adjunct faculty appointments at universities in Belgium and Germany. After his career in Academia, Geert joined several vaccine companies (GSK Biologicals, Novartis Vaccines, Solvay Biologicals) to serve various roles in vaccine R&D as well as in late vaccine development.
Geert then moved on to join the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation’s Global Health Discovery team in Seattle (USA) as Senior Program Officer; he then worked with the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI) in Geneva as Senior Ebola Program Manager. At GAVI he tracked efforts to develop an Ebola vaccine. He also represented GAVI in fora with other partners, including WHO, to review progress on the fight against Ebola and to build plans for global pandemic preparedness.
Back in 2015, Geert scrutinized and questioned the safety of the Ebola vaccine that was used in ring vaccination trials conducted by WHO in Guinea. His critical scientific analysis and report on the data published by WHO in the Lancet in 2015 was sent to all international health and regulatory authorities involved in the Ebola vaccination program. After working for GAVI, Geert joined the German Center for Infection Research in Cologne as Head of the Vaccine Development Office. He is at present primarily serving as a Biotech / Vaccine consultant while also conducting his own research on Natural Killer cell-based vaccines.
Email: info@voiceforscienceandsolidarity.org
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