When Linear Thinking Fails

Author: G. Vanden Bossche, DVM, PhD                                                    May 5th, 2026



When Experts Disagree, Something Bigger Is Being Missed

Why experts’ linear thinking prevents them from grasping the evolutionary dynamics of the COVID-19 immune escape pandemic

Summary

The current state of the COVID-19 (C-19) pandemic is often described in reassuring terms: declining severity, widespread immunity, transition toward endemicity.

But these interpretations may be built on comforting yet incomplete assumptions.

The coexistence of contradictory expert opinions, each supported by partial data, should prompt a more fundamental question:
whether the frameworks used to interpret this phenomenon are themselves inadequate.

A more comprehensive understanding of the ongoing immune escape pandemic in highly C-19-vaccinated populations requires moving beyond linear reasoning and embracing the multidimensional nature of virus-host immunity interactions and their evolutionary dynamics in these populations.

Only then can we begin to reconcile the apparent contradictions–and avoid policy decisions based on interpretations that may ultimately prove to be not just incomplete, but misleading.

Beyond the Illusion of Simplicity

One does not need to look far to observe that even highly reputed scientists fundamentally disagree on the future trajectory of the C-19 pandemic. Some argue that the virus is progressively attenuating into a benign, common-cold-like pathogen. Others claim that the apparent decline in severity is simply the result of widespread immunity acquired through infection, vaccination, or both–so-called ‘hybrid immunity.’

A recent STAT article (link) encapsulates this divide, asking whether SARS-CoV-2 (SC-2) has become ‘more nuisance than peril’ and presenting a range of expert opinions that attempt to reconcile declining mortality, lower wastewater signals, and reduced clinical burden with a narrative of increasing population protection.

At first glance, these interpretations may seem reasonable. Upon closer inspection, however, they reveal something far more fundamental: a persistent tendency among scientists to interpret complex, multidimensional phenomena through linear and siloed frameworks of reasoning.


The Illusion of Coherent Interpretation

In a dense cloud of observations–declining deaths, fluctuating transmission, decreasing wastewater viral load, immune escape, changing age distribution–it is always possible to identify subsets of data points that align with a given hypothesis. A scientist who believes in progressive attenuation will highlight reduced intrinsic viral virulence. Another who emphasizes immunity will point to widespread exposure and large-scale vaccination resulting in declining mortality.

But this is precisely the problem. Each of these interpretations selectively connects a limited number of observations into a linear narrative, while failing to account for the many others that do not fit that line. The result is not a comprehensive explanation, but rather a series of partial truths, each internally coherent yet inherently contradictory and polarizing the scientific community.

The coexistence of these conflicting interpretations, each supported by ‘objective’ yet selective analyses, while leaving many observations unexplained, is perhaps the strongest indication that none of the prevailing linear frameworks adequately captures the full complexity of the phenomenon. These are, in essence, apparent theories, constructs that hold only as long as critical questions cannot be asked in an open scientific debate.


A Multidimensional Phenomenon Misread as Linear

An alternative and more plausible explanation is that the cloud of observations reflects a system governed not by a simple linear causal chain, but by multidimensional dynamics.

This is because this pandemic–especially one occurring in the context of mass vaccination–is shaped by:

• Viral behavior (mutation, recombination, immune escape)
• Population-level immunity (heterogeneous, dynamic, and largely suboptimal)
• Age-dependent differences in immune profiles
• Feedback loops between viral adaptation and host immunity
• Evolutionary dynamics of all of the above

These factors do not operate along a single axis. They interact in complex and often nonlinear ways. To impose a linear interpretation on such a system is, by definition, to misinterpret it.

A more appropriate approach requires the ability to connect observations across disciplines and dimensions–to recognize patterns that do not align along a single explanatory axis, but instead emerge from the interaction of multiple dimensions.


The Failure to Distinguish Immune Response from Protection

One of the most striking examples of this linear misinterpretation is the widespread assumption that the presence of an immune response equates to protection.

The STAT article repeatedly emphasizes that ‘virtually everyone has at least some immunity’ and uses this as a primary explanation for the reduced impact of circulating SC-2 variants.

This is a critical oversimplification.

An immune response is not synonymous with effective protection. In a rapidly evolving viral system, especially one characterized by ongoing immune escape in highly C-19-vaccinated populations, the immune system may be highly active yet poorly aligned with the circulating viral variants. In such scenario, the immune system is not preventing infection efficiently and population-level immunity is not ensuring rapid abrogation of viral transmission.

In other words, the system is not protected–it is engaged in a continuous, reactive chase of a moving target.


Mistaking Decline for Resolution. The Metastable Trap

Declining mortality, reduced wastewater viral loads and fewer severe cases are widely interpreted as evidence that the pandemic is resolving.

But this interpretation ignores a critical possibility: that the system may have entered a metastable state.

In such a state:

• The virus continues to circulate
• The immune system remains highly active
• Severe outcomes decrease
• But the underlying dynamics remain fundamentally unstable

This apparent ‘calm’ is not necessarily a sign of equilibrium. It may instead reflect a phase of temporary balance under constraint, where neither the virus nor the host immune system has achieved decisive advantage.

As described in my earlier work, this resembles a system that has exhausted its most efficient adaptive pathways.
The virus continues to accumulate mutations, particularly in the spike protein, yet functional gains in transmissibility and fitness become increasingly marginal.
The immune system, in turn, continues to respond, but often in a suboptimal manner because immune responses in highly C-19-vaccinated populations are misaligned with the evolving viral phenotype. Suboptimal immune responses result in recurrent vaccine-breakthrough infections and, thereby, drive a perpetuating reactivation of the misdirected immune responses while further compromising viral clearance. In other words, immune loss-of-function promotes viral immune escape and, therefore, inevitably leads to viral gain-of-function. In addition, misdirected immune responses may not only compromise the functionality of the immune system while promoting viral infectiousness, but also lead to immune pathology.

This leads to a critical insight:

A system can appear stable precisely because it is temporarily unable to evolve effectively within its current constraints. It is therefore not resolving, but instead circulating within an increasingly narrow evolutionary corridor.

Such conditions do not enable an equilibrium–they define a metastable situation.
Metastable systems can persist for extended periods, while remaining inherently unstable. But because the underlying constraints remain unresolved, they are inherently prone to nonlinear transitions once a critical threshold is crossed.

The assumption that SC-2 is simply drifting toward endemicity as a mild seasonal virus fails to account for this possibility. It reflects a linear projection of current trends into the future, without recognizing the structural instability underlying those trends.


Misinterpreting Age-Dependent Patterns

The observation that severe disease is increasingly concentrated in older individuals, very young children, and those with underlying conditions, is often interpreted as evidence that SC-2 is now behaving like other typical seasonal respiratory viruses.

But this common interpretation is simply totally naive as it overlooks the immunological basis of these patterns.

Differences in disease burden across age groups in highly C-19-vaccinated populations cannot reasonably be explained by viral adaptation to specific age groups but are more  plausibly explained by differences in immune system conditioning:

• Adults in highly C-19-vaccinated populations often have repeatedly stimulated, spike-focused adaptive responses
• Young children, by contrast, have less conditioned adaptive immunity and rely more on innate responses. Under high infectious pressure, this can result in increased infection rates, not because the virus has adapted to children, but because the immune landscape it encounters in children is distinct.

These differences shape infection dynamics in ways that do not require invoking age-specific viral adaptation. Yet linear reasoning tends to attribute such patterns directly to viral properties rather than to the interaction between virus and host immunity.


The Problem with Short-Term Thinking

A second major limitation in current scientific interpretations is the reliance on short-term trends and extrapolation.

Many predictive models assume that current trends–declining severity, diminishing viral load in wastewater, stable transmission, reduced mortality–will continue in a relatively smooth and predictable manner. But such models are often built on assumptions that fail to capture the nonlinear dynamics of complex systems.

Complex systems often evolve through prolonged periods of inertia, during which little appears to change, followed by sudden, nonlinear transitions once critical thresholds are crossed.

The apparent stability of the current situation may therefore be misleading. It may represent not a final state, but a pre-transitional phase.


Polarization as a Symptom of Analytical Failure

The ongoing disagreement among experts is often interpreted as a natural feature of scientific debate. But in this case, it rather reflects a deeper issue: the inability of linear frameworks to capture a multidimensional reality.

This leads to polarization:

• The ‘attenuation’ camp vs
• The ‘immunity-driven control’ camp

Each side constructs a simplified narrative supported by selective data, while neither adequately explains the full spectrum of observations.

Such polarization is not a sign of healthy scientific pluralism. It is often a sign that the underlying phenomenon is being mischaracterized and misunderstood.

Those capable of ‘connecting the dots’ across disciplines and dimensions–rather than remaining confined to a single line of linear reasoning–are, by virtue of their analytical approach, more likely to approximate the underlying reality.


A Historical Reminder

Scientific history offers many examples of similar patterns.

When Galileo challenged the prevailing worldview by introducing a multidimensional understanding of the Earth and its place in the solar system, his ideas were rejected not because they lacked evidence, but because they conflicted with entrenched linear interpretations.

The lesson is that even today’s highly trained scientists can misinterpret systems or phenomena governed by complex, multidimensional interactions when they rely on linear, reductionist frameworks or models that fail to capture the multidimensional nature of the system they are studying, regardless of how widely accepted those models may be or how much credibility they may derive from scientific authority.

Overall Conclusion: A Metastable System Mistaken for Resolution

The persistent polarization of interpretations–each supported by ‘objective’ yet selective data analyses, while leaving many observations unexplained–is perhaps the most compelling evidence that none of the prevailing linear frameworks adequately captures the reality of the phenomenon under study. These are, at best, partial theories, sustained only insofar as they are not subjected to sufficiently critical scrutiny or open scientific debate.

An alternative–and far more plausible–interpretation is that the seemingly contradictory cloud of observations reflects a system governed not by linear causality but by multidimensional dynamics shaped by interacting intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The interactions between SC-2 and suboptimal population-level immunity–as occurring in highly C-19-vaccinated populations–do not operate along a single axis. The evolutionary dynamics of these complex interactions occur in intricate, nonlinear ways that cannot be reduced to simplistic narratives of attenuation or protection.

Within this framework, the current state of the ongoing immune escape pandemic is best understood as a metastable equilibrium: a condition in which the system appears stable, yet remains fundamentally unstable due to unresolved underlying constraints. The virus continues to evolve under intense immune pressure, while the host immune system remains highly active but increasingly misaligned with the evolving viral phenotype. The result is a system that is neither progressing toward true equilibrium nor collapsing–but instead hovering in a constrained, pseudo-stable state.

Such systems are well known in complex dynamics. They can persist for prolonged periods, creating the illusion of stability, while in reality accumulating tension beneath the surface. Crucially, once certain thresholds are crossed, they do no longer evolve gradually, but undergo abrupt, nonlinear transition. This is the essence of the phase transition I have repeatedly described.

Contrary to the comforting narratives suggesting that SC-2 is steadily attenuating or being brought under control by the diversified spectrum of immune responses generated in highly C-19-vaccinated populations, the current evolutionary dynamics of this pandemic may instead reflect a system that has exhausted its most effective adaptive pathways.Incremental spike mutations yield diminishing returns, while immune pressure continues to intensify. Under such conditions, the likelihood increases that the virus will eventually escape this constraint not through gradual optimization, but through a dramatic, qualitative shift in its interaction with the host.

The analogy with other complex systems is instructive. Just as climatic systems can remain seemingly stable before rapidly transitioning into a new state once critical thresholds are exceeded, or as materials under repeated stress can maintain structural integrity before sudden failure, the present pandemic may be approaching a point at which small additional changes trigger disproportionate consequences.

The failure to recognize this possibility stems from the same limitation that underlies the current polarization of expert opinions: the inability–or unwillingness–to move beyond linear, short-term reasoning. Many scientists remain confined within disciplinary silos, interpreting data through narrowly defined frameworks and extrapolating short-term trends into the future, while neglecting the multidimensional nature of the system.

This is not a failure of intelligence, but of perspective.

Those who think in binary terms–attenuation versus immune protection, viral immune escape versus endemicity–inevitably miss the deeper complexity at play. And in doing so, they promote interpretations that are not only incomplete but truly misleading and potentially harmful, in this case to individual and public health.

In this light, the current disagreement among experts is not surprising. It is the natural consequence of blindly applying linear reasoning to a system that is inherently nonlinear.
The real question, therefore, is not which of the competing linear narratives is correct.
It is whether the phenomenon itself can be understood within a linear framework at all.
If it cannot–and the available evidence increasingly suggests that it cannot–then the apparent calm we observe today should not be interpreted as resolution but as the prelude to a transition whose nature and timing remain uncertain, but whose threat to highly C-19-vaccinated populations can no longer be ignored.

Consequently, one should be highly skeptical of the seemingly reassuring rhetoric from those relying on simplistic linear interpretations, while remaining attentive to the voices of those who have invested the time and effort to engage in a deep, multidimensional analysis of the evolutionary dynamics of this ongoing immune escape pandemic.

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