Some have struggled with my predictions regarding the evolution of the immune escape pandemic, particularly with my observation that - for some time now - the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 (SC-2) evolution appear to be losing momentum, while the collective immune response in highly Covid-19-vaccinated populations is shaping a metastable viral landscape (https://voiceforscienceandsolidarity.substack.com/p/why-the-current-calm-in-sars-cov; https://voiceforscienceandsolidarity.substack.com/p/from-breakthrough-to-breakdown-simplified)..
Perhaps this becomes easier to grasp if we consider the current situation through the lens of a concept from physics and materials science: material fatigue. This is a familiar phenomenon, and a useful conceptual parallel for understanding systems that are subjected to repeated stress while operating under increasing constraint.
The current evolutionary behavior of SC-2 bears indeed resemblance -at least conceptually- to a system undergoing material fatigue.
Under repeated cycles of immune pressure, the virus continues to accumulate mutations, yet these increasingly fail to translate into meaningful gains in transmissibility.
Much like microstructural damage accumulating in a stressed material, the virus appears to be operating within a narrowing adaptive corridor, maintaining apparent functionality while progressively losing evolutionary flexibility. Such systems can remain deceptively stable for extended periods, even as internal constraints intensify.
However, once critical thresholds are approached, further incremental adjustments cease to be effective, and the system becomes susceptible to abrupt, nonlinear transitions.
In materials, this manifests as fracture; in viral evolution, it may manifest as a qualitative shift in strategy one that no longer relies on incremental amino-acid substitutions but instead uses changes in its glycosylation profile to alter the fundamental interaction between the virus and the host immune system.
In that sense, the current ‘metastable’ phase should not be mistaken for equilibrium (i.e., no endemicity!), but rather understood as a state of accumulated strain, in which the apparent calm may precede a sudden and disproportionate change in evolutionary behavior (HiViCron).
However, in materials subjected to repeated stress, failure is not the only outcome. Long before fracture occurs, systems may accumulate subcritical damage, i.e., microstructural changes that do not immediately destroy integrity, yet impair performance and persist over time.
The system continues to function but no longer returns fully to its original state after each stress cycle.
In a biological context, one might view conditions such as Long Covid through a loosely analogous lens: not as catastrophic system failure but as a manifestation of repeated perturbation without full recovery, where residual dysfunction accumulates despite the absence of overt acute disease.
While the analogy is not literal, it highlights an important point, namely that systems under chronic stress may exhibit persistent, non-resolving, long-lasting effects before collapse.
Geert Vanden Bossche received his DVM from the University of Ghent, Belgium, and his PhD degree in Virology from the University of Hohenheim, Germany. He held adjunct faculty appointments at universities in Belgium and Germany. After his career in Academia, Geert joined several vaccine companies (GSK Biologicals, Novartis Vaccines, Solvay Biologicals) to serve various roles in vaccine R&D as well as in late vaccine development.
Geert then moved on to join the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation’s Global Health Discovery team in Seattle (USA) as Senior Program Officer; he then worked with the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI) in Geneva as Senior Ebola Program Manager. At GAVI he tracked efforts to develop an Ebola vaccine. He also represented GAVI in fora with other partners, including WHO, to review progress on the fight against Ebola and to build plans for global pandemic preparedness.
Back in 2015, Geert scrutinized and questioned the safety of the Ebola vaccine that was used in ring vaccination trials conducted by WHO in Guinea. His critical scientific analysis and report on the data published by WHO in the Lancet in 2015 was sent to all international health and regulatory authorities involved in the Ebola vaccination program. After working for GAVI, Geert joined the German Center for Infection Research in Cologne as Head of the Vaccine Development Office. He is at present primarily serving as a Biotech / Vaccine consultant while also conducting his own research on Natural Killer cell-based vaccines.
Email: info@voiceforscienceandsolidarity.org
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